Why Electricity Prices Are Going Up in Ontario (2026 Update)

Electricity prices are going up in Ontario because demand is rising, new generation costs more than the supply it replaces, and delivery and regulatory charges are set separately. Regulated prices rose about 29 percent on November 1, 2025. That increase applies to the electricity line, not to your whole bill.

That distinction matters before you read anything else on this page. Your bill has separate lines for electricity, delivery, regulatory charges, the Ontario Electricity Rebate and HST. The November 2025 increase moved the electricity line. At the same time the province raised the rebate from 13.1 percent to 23.5 percent, which offset part of it. So the increase to your total bill was smaller than 29 percent, and how much smaller depends on your usage and your utility.

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Most Ontario homes, small businesses and farms buy electricity under the Regulated Price Plan, or RPP. The Ontario Energy Board sets those prices once a year, effective November 1. The prices below took effect on November 1, 2025 and are the prices in force as of August 2026.

You are on one of three plans. Time of Use and Ultra-Low Overnight charge you based on when you use power. Tiered charges you based on how much you use in a month.

Time of Use prices, effective November 1, 2025

Ultra-Low Overnight prices, effective November 1, 2025

Tiered prices, effective November 1, 2025

Source: Ontario Energy Board, current electricity rates, retrieved August 2026. These prices apply until the Ontario Energy Board sets new ones, which it does annually on November 1. Our Ontario hydro bill explainer walks through where each of these figures appears on the bill.

The headline number reported in most coverage was about 29 percent. That is accurate for Time of Use and Tiered customers. It understates what happened to Ultra-Low Overnight customers.

The table below compares the prices the Ontario Energy Board set on November 1, 2024 with the prices it set on November 1, 2025. The percentage change is calculated from the regulator's own published historical and current price tables.

Calculated by Solar Calculator Canada from Ontario Energy Board historical and current Regulated Price Plan prices, August 2026.

Two things are worth pulling out of that table.

The Ultra-Low Overnight on peak price rose faster than any other price in the plan, and it now sits at 39.1 cents. That window runs from 4 PM to 9 PM on weekdays, which is exactly when most families cook dinner, do laundry and charge a car. Ultra-Low Overnight only works in your favour if you can genuinely move that load. Our Ontario ULO arbitrage guide breaks down the honest battery math on that 39.1 cent versus 3.9 cent spread.

The second point is one you will not often see from companies selling solar. Ontario electricity prices have not risen in a straight line. Ten years ago, on November 1, 2015, Time of Use prices were 8.3, 12.8 and 17.5 cents. Compared with today that is roughly 18 percent, 23 percent and 16 percent growth over a full decade, and prices were actually lower in several of the years in between because of the Fair Hydro Plan and pandemic era rate relief. The electricity line on your bill is a policy managed number, not a market price. It can be held down, and it has been. It can also jump 29 percent in one night, and it just did.

No single line item explains it. Five forces are stacking.

Demand is growing, though the forecast just came down

The Independent Electricity System Operator, or IESO, publishes an Annual Planning Outlook each year. The 2026 Annual Planning Outlook, released in March 2026, forecasts Ontario electricity demand growing 65 percent by 2050 under its reference scenario, from about 152 terawatt hours in 2026 to roughly 250 terawatt hours in 2050.

Note the direction of that revision. The 2025 outlook had forecast 75 percent growth. The 2026 outlook lowered it to 65 percent, citing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a lower electric vehicle forecast, and stronger than expected results from energy efficiency programs. If you see an Ontario energy article still quoting 75 percent, it is running on last year's number.

The IESO also publishes high and low scenarios: 92 percent growth in the high case and 38 percent in the low case. That spread is the honest picture. Demand is rising in every scenario, but by how much is genuinely uncertain.

Nationally, the Canada Energy Regulator's Canada's Energy Future 2026, published March 17, 2026, projects end use electricity demand rising 44 percent from 2023 to 2050 under its baseline Current Measures scenario, with a range of 26 to 85 percent across all four of its scenarios.

New supply costs more than the supply it replaces

Ontario is building and rebuilding a large amount of nuclear capacity. According to Ontario Power Generation, the first small modular reactor at the Darlington New Nuclear Project is budgeted at 6.1 billion dollars, plus 1.6 billion for systems and services shared across all four units, for a total budget of 20.9 billion dollars for the four unit fleet. Separately, the refurbishment of the existing four Darlington reactors completes in 2026: the IESO 2026 Annual Planning Outlook notes at footnote 13 that unit G4 returned to service ahead of schedule (announced February 2, 2026), and section 3.1.2 confirms the refurbishment programme completes in 2026. Further projects at Pickering, Bruce and a proposed new station at Wesleyville are at earlier stages.

How much of that reaches your bill, and when, is less simple than it is often presented. Some of it is being financed with equity rather than straight rate recovery: the Canada Growth Fund and the Building Ontario Fund committed equity to the Darlington project in October 2025, and the Williams Treaties First Nations announced a 700 million dollar investment in June 2026. Generation costs above market prices flow to consumers through the Global Adjustment, which is already built into the regulated prices in the tables above. The exact split between ratepayers and equity partners on these projects has not been published in a form we can verify, so this page will not put a number on it.

Whether the build is good value is a fair debate and not one this page will settle.

Delivery and regulatory charges move separately

The electricity line is not the only part of your bill that changes. The Ontario Energy Board sets the delivery rates each local utility charges, and it approves each utility's rate application individually, which is why two homes using identical amounts of power can pay different delivery charges depending on whether they are served by Toronto Hydro, Hydro One or a smaller municipal utility. Regulatory charges also move on the Ontario Energy Board's own schedule.

One point is commonly muddled, including by companies selling solar. Global Adjustment and conservation program costs sit in the electricity line, not in regulatory charges. Regulatory charges cover wholesale market administration and grid reliability. If an article tells you the Global Adjustment is a regulatory charge, it has the bill structure wrong.

Electric vehicles and electrification add load per home

The IESO projects light duty electric vehicles in Ontario growing from roughly 300 thousand in 2025 to 10.6 million by 2050, with EV charging demand reaching 34.2 terawatt hours a year by 2050.

That forecast moved this year. In February 2026 the federal government announced the repeal of the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard and its annual sales targets, shifting to vehicle emissions standards instead. The IESO has said those changes will be fully reflected in its 2027 outlook. Treat any EV adoption number published today as provisional.

Data centres are real, but smaller than the headlines suggest

Under the IESO's 2026 reference scenario, data centres are expected to make up 8.6 per cent of Ontario electricity demand in 2050, roughly 60 percent more than the previous forecast.

That is meaningful growth on a fast rising base. It is also not the majority of the problem, and content that frames data centres as the main reason your bill went up is overstating it.

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Partly, and only for as long as the province chooses to fund it.

Effective November 1, 2025, the Ontario government raised the Ontario Electricity Rebate from 13.1 percent to 23.5 percent. The Ontario Energy Board estimated that for a typical residential customer using 700 kWh per month, the rebate reduces the bill by about 36 dollars a month.

Two things follow from that. First, the rebate softened the increase but did not cancel it. Second, the rebate is a discretionary government program applied to your bill, not a contract and not a regulated price. The rebate percentage has changed before and can change again in any provincial budget. The underlying prices in the tables above are what your home actually consumes.

Start with two plain definitions, because these two words get used interchangeably in sales conversations and they are not the same thing.

Net metering means your solar system can export surplus electricity to the grid and receive a credit on your bill.

Load displacement means your system is sized so that everything it generates is used on site, either immediately or stored in a battery, and nothing is exported.

In Ontario, both exist, and you generally have to choose one.

The choice that changes everything: rebate or net metering

Ontario's Home Renovation Savings program, delivered by Save on Energy and Enbridge Gas, offers residential rebates of 1,000 dollars per kW of solar up to 5,000 dollars, and 300 dollars per kWh of battery storage up to 5,000 dollars, each capped at 50 percent of total costs.

Here is the rule most homeowners find out about too late. The program states that participants who receive a Home Renovation Savings incentive for solar and battery storage are not eligible to enter a net metering agreement with their local distribution company. The incentives are for load displacement only.

So the fork is real:

• Take the rebate, size for load displacement, export nothing.
• Skip the rebate, sign a net metering agreement, export surplus for credits.

Which one wins depends entirely on your consumption pattern, your roof, and your rate plan. A household that uses most of its power in the evening and can shift load into a battery looks very different from a household with a large south facing roof and high daytime export. There is no universally correct answer, and anyone who gives you one without looking at twelve months of your usage is guessing. Our rebate versus net metering breakdown walks through which one tends to win for which household.

Two further details matter. Under Ontario's net metering regulation, according to the Ontario Energy Board, credits offset charges related to the electricity you consumed and cannot be applied to other charges on your bill. Credits carry forward for up to 12 months, after which they are reduced to zero. Under the rebate path, written pre approval is required before any equipment is purchased or installed.

Program terms change. Confirm current rules on the program's own site before you sign anything.

What solar does not do

Solar reduces or offsets the electricity line on your bill. It does not remove the delivery and regulatory charges tied to your physical connection to the grid. Delivery has a fixed monthly component and a variable component based on the electricity you draw from the grid. Solar reduces the variable part and removes neither. If you stay connected, you keep paying both. Our Ontario solar payback guide walks through what a realistic return window looks like given that constraint.

The honest framing is narrower than "lock in your rate for 25 years", and it is still useful: for the electricity your panels actually produce and you actually use, you have replaced a price the regulator resets every November with a cost you fixed on the day you bought the system.

When solar is a poor fit in Ontario

• Heavy shade from trees or neighbouring buildings.
• A roof near the end of its life, since removal and reinstallation is a real cost.
• Low annual consumption, because there is little to offset.
• Plans to sell the home in the near term, before the system has returned much of its cost.
• Unwillingness to shift evening load, if you are on Ultra-Low Overnight and considering the load displacement path.

If two or more of those describe you, get the numbers before you get quotes.

This is where a lot of Ontario solar content is currently wrong, so read this section carefully.

The Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit is not available to homeowners. The Canada Revenue Agency states that the credit can be claimed by a taxable Canadian corporation, or a mutual fund trust that is a real estate investment trust, including such entities that are members of a partnership. A private individual installing panels on their own house cannot claim it. If a quote or an article shows a 30 percent federal credit applied to a residential system, that line is wrong and the payback number built on it is wrong too.

The Canada Greener Homes Grant and Loan are both closed. Natural Resources Canada lists the grant as closed, and the loan stopped accepting applications on October 1, 2025.

For an Ontario homeowner in August 2026, the Home Renovation Savings program is the main incentive on the table, and taking it means giving up net metering.

Rate increases only matter in proportion to what you consume and when you consume it. A home on Ultra-Low Overnight with an electric vehicle experienced November 2025 very differently from a low usage home on Tiered pricing.

Our Ontario solar calculator models system size, production and payback under Ontario's current rules, including both the rebate path and the net metering path. It produces an estimate, not a quote. Only a licensed installer inspecting your property can tell you what a system will actually cost, and only your utility can confirm what it will approve.

Get your free solar estimate for Ontario

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Editorial note: Regulated Price Plan rates are set by the Ontario Energy Board and reset every November 1. Figures on this page are effective November 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026 and will be refreshed within 24 hours of the next annual price announcement. Program terms for the Home Renovation Savings rebate, federal tax credits and closed federal loans are administered by the bodies named in each section and can change on their own schedules. Confirm current rules with each administrator before signing anything.

1. Ontario Energy Board, Electricity rates (current Regulated Price Plan prices).
2. Ontario Energy Board, Historical electricity rates.
3. Ontario Energy Board, news release on the November 1, 2025 price change and Ontario Electricity Rebate.
4. Ontario Energy Board, Net metering.
5. Ontario Energy Board, Understanding your electricity bill.
6. IESO, 2026 Annual Planning Outlook report.
7. IESO, 2026 Annual Planning Outlook summary.
8. IESO, 2026 Annual Planning Outlook demand forecast methodology.
9. Canada Energy Regulator, Canada's Energy Future 2026, executive summary.
10. Canada Energy Regulator, Canada's Energy Future 2026, Current Measures fact sheet.
11. Home Renovation Savings, solar panels and battery storage.
12. Canada Revenue Agency, Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit, who can claim.
13. Natural Resources Canada, Canada Greener Homes Loan (closed to new applicants).
14. Ontario Power Generation, Darlington small modular reactor project budget.